Fall 2026 Housing Market Preview: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

Statewide Snapshot: July 2026 in Review

The most recent data from the California Association of REALTORS (released August 17, 2026) shows a market that is holding its ground even as seasonal patterns shift. The statewide median home price settled at $887,680 in July, down 1.9% from June but up 0.3% year-over-year from July 2025. That is a market that is stabilizing, not declining.

Existing single-family home sales totaled 263,170 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 6.0% from June but up 1.1% year-over-year. This marks the fourth consecutive month where sales exceeded year-ago levels, a positive sign that buyer confidence is returning after the high-rate environment of 2024 and early 2025.

Year-to-date sales through July were up 1.8% compared to the same period in 2025. While the market is not booming, it is moving in the right direction.

Southern California: A Tale of Two Markets

Across the six-county Southern California region, the median home price was $899,000 in July, down just 0.1% from June but up 2.7% year-over-year. That is a market holding its value.

However, sales fell 8.5% from June and were essentially flat year-over-year, rising just 0.1%. The summer slowdown is real, but it is important to put it in context: June 2026 was a strong month for sales in Southern California, so a July pullback is consistent with normal seasonal patterns. Buyers who were house-hunting in the spring are not gone, they are being more measured and selective.

In Los Angeles County, the median price dropped to $888,120, down 2.4% from June and down 2.6% year-over-year. Sales declined 8.7% from June and were down 0.9% year-over-year. The median time to sell was 26 days, which tells us well-priced homes are still moving at a reasonable pace.

C.A.R. Chief Economist Jordan Levine noted that the July data reflected "ongoing challenges under the current economic and lending environment" but also showed "signs of resilience." That is a fair summary of where we are today.

Santa Clarita: Stability in a Shifting Market

In Santa Clarita, the median sales price for all residential properties in July 2026 was approximately $790,000. While that represents a year-over-year decline from the elevated prices of mid-2025, it is important to look at the full picture. Home prices in Santa Clarita remain well above pre-pandemic levels, and the market continues to attract serious buyers who recognize the value of this community.

There were approximately 589 active listings as of early August, with an average of 63 days on market. These numbers tell us that buyers have more choices, but motivated sellers who price their homes competitively and present them well are still finding qualified buyers.

For sellers, this is not a market to test an aggressive price. The days of listing high and waiting for a bidding war are behind us. But homes that are priced right from day one, staged well, and marketed with strategy are still selling at strong prices. That is the Silver Standard approach, and it matters more now than ever.

Mortgage Rates: Stability Is the Story

Mortgage rates are hovering in the 6.5% to 6.75% range heading into September 2026. The Federal Reserve has held rates steady for several months, and most major forecasters expect the 30-year fixed rate to drift gradually toward 6.0% to 6.5% by the end of the year.

Fannie Mae's July 2026 forecast projects rates holding at 6.4% through year-end, while the National Association of REALTORS forecasts an average of 6.5%. The California Association of REALTORS is more optimistic at 6.0% for full-year 2026. The key takeaway is that rates are not expected to spike, but they are also not expected to drop below 6% any time soon.

What does this mean for buyers? The window of opportunity is open. Rates are stable, inventory is growing, and sellers are becoming more realistic about pricing. Waiting for rates to drop to 5% may mean waiting until 2027 or beyond. If your life situation calls for a move this year, the math may work better than you think.

For veterans, the picture is even brighter. VA loans offer zero down payment, no PMI, competitive rates, and now a tax-deductible funding fee starting in the 2026 tax year. These benefits make homeownership accessible even in a 6.5% rate environment.

What Fall 2026 Typically Brings

Real estate markets follow seasonal patterns, and fall is historically a strong time for both buyers and sellers. Here is what we typically see:

• More motivated sellers: Homeowners who listed in the spring or summer and did not sell often adjust their pricing in the fall, creating opportunities for buyers.
• Serious buyers remain: Casual house-hunters tend to taper off once school starts, leaving a pool of more committed buyers.
• Less competition: Fewer buyers in the market means less competition for the homes that are available.
• Year-end urgency: Some sellers may be motivated by timing, and some buyers may want to close before the holidays or the new year.

This fall in particular, the combination of growing inventory, stabilizing rates, and more balanced market conditions creates a window that has not existed in several years.

What I Am Watching This Fall

• Inventory levels: Southern California entered summer with approximately a 3-month supply. If new listings continue coming on the market through fall, buyers will enjoy even more choice.
• Mortgage rate direction: Stability at 6.5% is supporting activity. A move toward 6.0% would likely bring more buyers off the sidelines.
• Price adjustments: Homes that have been sitting since the spring are likely to see price reductions. That is where the best opportunities are for buyers.
• Economic signals: With a presidential election in November, some buyers and sellers may pause to see how the outcome affects the housing market. Historically, real estate markets have remained resilient through election cycles.

The Bottom Line for Sellers

If you are considering selling this fall, the honest truth is that the market still favors well-prepared sellers. But the margin is narrower than it was a few years ago. Homes that are priced accurately from day one, staged to appeal to today's selective buyers, and marketed with a real strategy are selling. Homes that are overpriced or poorly presented are sitting.

The Silver Standard approach is designed for this exact market. I combine 22 years of local experience with AI-powered analysis to position every listing competitively from the moment it hits the market. Pricing is not a guess. It is a data-informed strategy designed to attract the right buyer at the right price. Buy Smart. Sell Smart. Silver Smart.

The Bottom Line for Buyers

For buyers, fall 2026 may offer the best combination of choice, negotiating power, and stable rates we have seen since before the pandemic. Inventory is growing, competition is easing, and motivated sellers are more willing to negotiate on price, repairs, and concessions.

If you have been waiting for a sign, this is it. Not because the market is perfect, but because conditions are genuinely better than they have been. More options, more time, less pressure. That is a good recipe for making a smart decision.

For veterans, the advantages are even greater. VA loans offer zero down, no PMI, and competitive rates. As a fellow veteran and experienced REALTOR, I have helped dozens of veteran families navigate the process from pre-approval to closing. I would be honored to help you too.